Market Commentary — July 5, 2022
Hope everyone had a great 4th of July, post-quarter-end weekend! While the quarter and year have been somewhat ugly from a market performance standpoint, we in America still have much to be grateful for! Happy 245th birthday USA!
The S&P 500 Index closed out its worst half of the year since 1970, which is exacerbated by the index reaching an all-time high on January 3rd. Yes, we are in a bear market. The big question is, are we also in a recession?
The Atlanta Fed’s 2Q GDP estimate is -1%, indicating two successive quarters of negative GDP. While we need to wait for the official pronouncement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), I am calling it – we are! But if the recession also corresponds with a decline in inflation, that could mean the Fed less aggressive rate action going forward. That could spur a bear market rally.
In ETF land, the big news was that the Bitwise and Grayscale’s GBTC conversion filings for spot bitcoin ETFs were rejected. And Grayscale is suing the SEC over the rejection. In the filing, Grayscale asks the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to review the SEC’s order.
Next week we will be sharing our quarterly commentary here, while I take a much-needed vacation to convene with nature, family, and dogs at the lake. God Bless America.
CEO and Co-Founder